WHAT WAS CLAIMED
The mass of ice in Antarctica has rebounded after increasing in recent years.
OUR VERDICT
Misleading. While Antarctic ice mass has fluctuated in recent years, the continent has lost around 2.5 trillion tonnes of ice since 2002.
AAP FACTCHECK - The amount of ice in Antarctica hasn't rebounded after growth in recent years, despite claims on social media.
Although the total mass of ice in Antarctica has fluctuated since 2020, this followed almost 20 years of decline in which the continent lost 2.5 trillion tonnes of ice.
Recent gains in mass have also been followed by equally significant losses.
The claim appears in a Facebook post sharing an image of an ice shelf with overlaid text that reads: "Antarctic Ice Sheet on the verge of a 'catastrophic' collapse causing irreversible damage.
"Overall Antarctic ICE Mass has rebounded and is increasing these last few years…" the post's caption reads.
"...yet the doom-mongers keep the fear dialed up to 11.
"Yes the Western sea ice shelves are unstable, BECAUSE THE HAVE VOLCANOS UNDER THEM, but despite this, Antarctica as a whole IS GAINING ice mass.
"But dont let the truth get in the way of a scary headline, right?"
AAP FactCheck asked the user for evidence to support the claim, but did not receive a response.
The claim is misleading.
Experts say the Antarctic ice sheet is losing mass and year-to-year fluctuations are not a sign of a rebound or reversal of the long-term trend.
NASA satellites have measured the mass of Antarctica's ice sheets for the last 23 years, showing it has lost ice at an average rate of about 135 billion tonnes a year.
The decline is most consistent and pronounced from 2006 to 2020. Over the last five years the amount of ice has fluctuated, peaking in 2023 before declining.
The most recent data, from June 2025, shows the total ice sheet mass is similar to that in early 2020, but significantly lower than the 2023 peak.
The total mass is estimated to have significantly decreased since 1979, with the most significant losses occurring since the late 1980s, according to the European Union's Copernicus program.
This is based on satellite data, measurements of earth's gravitational field, and direct observations.
The continent increased in mass in 2022 due to "anomalous snowfall in east Antarctica" but the following year the gain was reversed.
The temporary growth in ice mass was the subject of a paper published in the May 2025 edition of Climate and Atmospheric Science, which noted Antarctica gained 205 billion tonnes of ice in 2022 due to increased snowfall, corresponding with record lows in the sea ice extent.
The authors attributed that to a rare three-year La Nina climate pattern between 2020 and 2023.
The limited growth in 2022 has since been used to cast doubt on climate change science in numerous social media posts.
However, Antarctica lost more than 600 billion tonnes of ice between April 2023 and January 2024.
This has been followed by some small recent gains in ice, with the latest data showing ice mass about 300 billion tonnes below the 2023 peak.
Matt King, an Antarctic ice sheet expert at the University of Tasmania, told AAP FactCheck that while higher-than-normal snowfall has been recorded in recent years, the overall ice sheet mass is still decreasing.
"This doesn't change the fact that the glaciers have accelerated and remain unstable in parts of Antarctica," he said.
"The snowfall is just masking instability."
Nicholas Golledge, an expert in the Antarctic ice sheet at Victoria University of Wellington, said year-to-year variability did not mean the ice sheet was gaining mass.
"The overall trend shows very clearly that any yearly reversals in trend do not offset the long-term decline in mass that has been going on for several decades," Professor Golledge told AAP FactCheck.
The much larger east Antarctic ice sheet has been relatively stable, while most of the ice loss has occurred on the west Antarctic ice sheet.
This has not, however, been caused by volcanoes, as the Facebook post claims.
Prof Golledge said that while there are a number of volcanoes and geothermal areas in west Antarctica that can increase ice sheet melt, the main cause has been warmer ocean temperatures, not least because much of it rests on bedrock below sea level.
It's also at a lower elevation than the east Antarctic ice sheet, much of which is 3000 metres above sea level.
AAP FactCheck has previously debunked a claim volcanoes were responsible for melting Antarctica's ice.
As the climate warms, the east Antarctic ice sheet may receive even more snowfall, but Prof Golledge said this wasn't expected to offset the amount of ice lost - at least not for many centuries.
Although the ice sheet did thicken during previous warm periods, as noted in a 2015 Nature Communications article, Prof College said any net increase in Antarctica's overall ice sheet mass could take "centuries or millennia", with ice loss from ocean warming set to exceed any growth from snowfall for some time.
The melting of the west Antarctic ice sheet alone could potentially raise global sea levels by five metres, according to 2024 research by Earth Sciences NZ.
"By then, the Antarctic ice sheet will be a lot smaller, and sea level will be several metres higher, so it won't be much comfort to anyone who's still around then," Prof Golledge said.
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