WHAT WAS CLAIMED
Every day 1544 migrants arrive in Australia.
OUR VERDICT
False. The dataset used to calculate the 1544 figure doesn't accurately measure migration.
AAP FACTCHECK - Social media posts are falsely claiming new data shows more than 1500 migrants arrive in Australia every day.
Experts say the data used to calculate the figure can't be used to measure migration accurately, leading users to significantly overstate the number of incoming people.
The spurious claims are spreading across social media following media reports in August 2025 suggesting 1544 migrants are arriving each day.
Some of the posts also advertise a planned anti-immigration protest.
One Facebook post linked the 1544 figure - doubled, over two days - to housing availability.
"In the last 48 hours we have had 3088 people arrive in Australia, of which all will need housing," the user wrote on August 20, 2025. "Think about it."
Other posts share a video showing crowds of people outside houses and on trains.
"BREAKING Albanese is bringing in 1544 new immigrants every day," a headline on the video reads.
AAP FactCheck has replicated the figure cited in the posts using recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) about overseas arrivals and departures (OAD).
This data measures the number of people moving in and out of the country in a period and is sourced from documents filled out by travellers.
The total number is broken down across several categories, including permanent arrivals, long-term visitors and short-term visitors.
Adding together the permanent and long-term arrivals and then subtracting departures in those same categories creates a net figure for permanent and long-term (NPLT) movements.
When calculated over the year to the end of June 2025, this results in an NPLT figure of 457,560.
Over the six months in 2025, the total is 279,460. This figure has then been divided by 181 - the days in that time - to reach 1543.9.
Both migration experts and the ABS, however, say the figure is inaccurate because the data used to calculate it does not actually measure migration rates.
The ABS published a press release last week warning that OAD isn't a migration measure, which is a separate dataset.
The bureau said the OAD data can count travellers multiple times if they move in and out of the country regularly - even if they have only migrated once.
For example, someone who has lived in Australia for three years on a temporary visa and travels overseas multiple times could be counted as multiple long-term arrivals.
"OAD data is a count of border crossings rather than migration," the ABS said.
"It is best used to understand patterns in traveller movements, such as tourism trends and seasonal travel.
"OAD data should not be used to measure migration or population change, as it reflects self-declared traveller intentions rather than changes in residency status."
Alan Gamlan, a migration expert at the Australian National University, told AAP FactCheck that the ABS doesn't use OAD data to track migration and that the reliability of the dataset for that task has deteriorated in recent years.
He said that departure cards filled out by passengers leaving Australia were abolished in 2017, making it more difficult to track movements of specific groups.
"While the OAD still serve a purpose in recording tourist movements, their usefulness beyond that is limited," he said.
Anna Boucher, a migration expert at the University of Sydney, told AAP FactCheck OAD data only measures movement in and out of Australia - not visa status.
"It's not an accurate measure of the number of migrants," Dr Boucher said.
In contrast, the purpose-built migration dataset released by the ABS categorises people by visa status and uses what the ABS describes as a "12 out of 16" rule, whereby someone must live in Australia for 12 months of a 16-month period.
"They look at the amount of time a person is in the country," Dr Boucher said.
"They're not capturing every single entrance and exit … if the bulk time is in Australia, then they count towards net overseas migration."
The migration data can be used to derive a measure called net overseas migration (NOM), which is the number of migrants who have arrived, minus departures.
The latest ABS data measuring NOM runs to the end of 2024, which is six months earlier than the latest OAD figures released in August, which run to June 2025.
Over the 2024 calendar year, the ABS recorded NOM as 340,800, according to the ABS.
That's much lower than the NPLT movements shown in the OAD data, which was 444,480 over the same period, according to the ABS.
In other words, NOM over 2024 averaged 931 per day (accounting for 366 days), compared to the 1214 daily average shown NPLT over the course of last year.
Prof Gamlan said the OAD data can't be used as a reliable indication of how many migrants are, or will be, arriving in Australia.
"While related, NPLT and NOM are methodologically distinct," he explained.
"NPLT is not a meaningful proxy or leading indicator of NOM in migration analysis."
Former deputy secretary of the immigration department Abul Rizvi said the NPLT is routinely significantly higher than NOM, particularly since the pandemic.
He said several other datasets must be taken into account when trying to predict NOM, which he detailed in an analysis for Independent Australia.
Mr Rizvi confirmed to AAP FactCheck that his analysis of these datasets suggests the NPLT data for the first six months of 2025 will be much higher than NOM levels.
An official figure won't be available until later this year, however, when the ABS updates its official migration statistics for 2025.
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